The global economy in 2024 is presenting a complex and evolving landscape, characterized by resilience amidst various challenges that loom on the horizonAs we transition into the new year, the critical questions arise regarding how the global economy can enhance its growth momentum, while continuing to recover from past downturnsIssues such as rising debt risks, increasing protectionism, and geopolitical tensions are paving the way for a critical examination of economic policies and international relations across the globe.

Despite these challenges, several international organizations have issued cautiously optimistic forecasts for the global economic outlook in 2025. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates a growth rate of approximately 3.2%, while the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) projects a slightly higher growth rate of 3.3%. On the other hand, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the World Bank maintains a more conservative estimates, forecasting growth rates of about 2.7% and 2.6%, respectivelyAnalysts suggest that given the current conditions of high inflation, elevated debt levels, and soaring interest rates, the global economy is already demonstrating signs of a soft landing, provided that stakeholders can effectively navigate the coming year.

One notable trend that has emerged is the persistent divergence in growth trajectories between developed and developing economiesIn 2024, while advanced economies like the United States are leveraging the dollar's significant global standing to escalate borrowing and stimulate economic activity, many of its allies in Europe and Japan face stagnationGermany, in particular, finds itself perilously close to recessionIn stark contrast, a multitude of developing countries, spanning regions like Asia, Africa, and South America, have exhibited remarkable resilience during this ongoing dollar cycleThe lessons learned from crises such as the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis have seemingly strengthened these nations' abilities to withstand external shocks

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Looking ahead to 2025, production in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, is expected to remain stable, while the manufacturing sectors in established economies continue to flounder, confirming the persistence of this growth divergence.

On the trade front, global commerce shows signs of recovery, yet the growing wave of protectionism calls for decisive actionsThe World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts ongoing growth in both goods and services tradeNonetheless, several Western nations, with the U.S. at the helm, appear to be circumventing the WTO framework by imposing restrictive trade measuresThis trend not only hampers the free flow of goods and services but also contributes to a fragmentation of the international trading system, resulting in inflated costs for global production and consumptionFurthermore, the new U.S. government administration’s policy announcements may usher in a fresh round of trade conflicts worldwide.

As concerns escalate regarding debt risks, particularly in relation to the U.S. government debt, vigilance is paramountThe IMF forecasts that by the end of 2024, global public debt will surpass an astounding $100 trillion, equivalent to 93% of worldwide GDPMuch of this debt surge stems from developed nations, especially the U.S., which not only exacerbates volatility in financial markets but also limits fiscal space in key economies like those of the U.S. and EuropeThe burden of high repayment costs may stifle growth opportunities, while also constraining the ability of central banks to maneuver effectivelyNotably, should a debt crisis erupt in the U.S.—the world's largest economy—the ramifications would resonate globally, precipitating extensive economic upheavalFurthermore, the intertwined issues of rising protectionism and continuous interest rate cuts in developed economies necessitate an acute awareness of potential inflationary pressures.

Technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and environmental concerns are set to emerge as influential factors affecting global economic growth in 2025. Presently, artificial intelligence technologies promise to uplift productivity levels, potentially catalyzing long-term economic expansion

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