EVs Poised to Overtake Traditional Car Sales
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The dawn of a new year has sparked significant motivation among leading Chinese automotive companies, including Geely, Dongfeng, Changan, NIO, and XiaopengThrough internal communications and press conferences, these manufacturers have laid out their ambitious sales targets and strategic directions for 2025, all while showcasing a sense of "Chinese confidence" along with emerging trends in industry transformationThis year is poised to witness a historic turning point as sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are projected to surpass those of traditional gasoline cars for the first time in China.
According to Zhang Yongwei, Vice Chairman and Secretary-General of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred Persons Association, the overall market for vehicles in China is anticipated to grow steadily with sales figures reaching around 32 million units by 2025, maintaining a growth rate of approximately three percent
In stark contrast, the production and sale of NEVs—including exports—are expected to reach 16.5 million units, marking a nearly 30 percent increase year-on-year, and achieving a market penetration exceeding 50%. Notably, domestically, NEVs are forecasted to hit 15 million units, with a penetration rate above 55%, signifying a shift towards higher quality development in the automotive sector.
Geely Automobile, for instance, has set an ambitious sales target of 2.71 million units for 2025, aiming for a 25 percent year-on-year increaseGeely's brand alone targets 2 million units with a 20 percent growthThe company has also ambitious expectations for its premium lines, Zeekr and Lynk & Co., aiming for 320,000 and 390,000 units respectively, which illustrates substantial growth in the electric vehicle market.
Geely’s CEO, Gan Jiayue, reported that the company achieved a historical high sales figure of 2.177 million vehicles in 2024—an increase of more than 32 percent from 2023. Especially noteworthy is the impressive performance of Geely's NEV sector, which recorded sales of 888,000 units, nearly doubling the previous year's figures.
In a similar vein, Dongfeng Motor Corporation outlined its strategy to reclaim its 3 million unit sales figure by 2025, setting the bar even higher at 3.2 million
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The company also plans for NEV sales to exceed 1 million units and to export 500,000 unitsAs part of this initiative, Dongfeng is reconfiguring its operations to strengthen the management of its passenger car division.
At the 2025 Chang'an Global Partners Conference, the company's chairman, Zhu Huarong, introduced an ambitious "3311" goal: 3 million total sales, 300 billion yuan in revenue, 1 million new energy vehicles, and 1 million units sold overseas by 2025. To achieve this, Chang'an plans to launch 13 new NEV products, including models like the Avita 06, Deep Blue S09, and Changan QiYuan C789, focusing efforts on various international markets.
The new power vehicle sector is notably vibrant, with NIO's founder Li Bin projecting ambitious future growthAlthough specific sales targets for 2025 were not disclosed, he indicated that the company aims to double its sales figures from 2024, driven by the products from its new brand, Law of the Road, which anticipates an average monthly sale of 20,000 vehicles by 2025.
Meanwhile, Xpeng Motors' founder He Xiaopeng has emphasized differentiation and global integration in his approach
Although specific sales goals for 2025 remain unspoken, He highlighted their focus on refining their product offering and strengthening their talent pool, planning to recruit over 6,000 new employees in a bid to enhance competitiveness.
The last few years have seen remarkable growth in the NEV sector, leading to growing concerns about whether this trajectory can continueZhang Yongwei addressed these concerns by stating that the market has begun to normalize as it approaches saturation, leading to the emergence of hybrid and range-extending technologies as significant drivers of growth within the NEV marketBy 2025, it is expected that these technologies will account for nearly 50 percent of the NEV market, contributing over 8 million sales and providing an increase of more than 2.5 million units.
As the market for new energy vehicles expands, the commercial vehicle segment is also projected to experience significant growth
In Zhang Yongwei's view, by 2025, sales of new energy commercial vehicles in China could exceed 900,000 units, showing an impressive growth rate of around 80%. Notably, the push towards renewable energy can result in lower lifecycle costs compared to traditional fuel vehicles, enhancing prospects for market penetration.
The competition among automotive companies has intensified, leading to a degree of market saturation that has prompted calls for more strategic, quality-driven approaches rather than purely price-based competitionCEO of Geely Holding Group, Li Shufu, outlined the company's philosophy of prioritizing technological innovation, quality, branding, and customer service over short-term gains through aggressive pricing strategies.
As the Chinese economy shifts towards a focus on high-quality growth, the automotive industry must also adapt to these new thematic imperatives
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